macroeconomics
January 29, 2025
In many countries, demand for long-term care services outpaces supply, leading to a ‘care gap’. Svend Hougaard Jensen, David Pinkus and Nina Ruer argue that Europe must get ready for the coming long-term...
January 26, 2025
Geopolitical risk and cyber-attacks are the most frequently cited risks among leaders of financial institutions operating in the UK. Carolyn Wilkins sets out how geopolitical threats present risks to financial...
January 18, 2025
Andrew Bailey reflects on the role that public institutions have played over the last eighty years. As these institutions continue to face challenge to their legitimacy there is a need to reinforce these...
January 15, 2025
Low growth and increased uncertainty pose new challenges for monetary policy. Luis de Guindos argues that preserving the strength and resilience of euro area banks is crucial in this environment
January 8, 2025
Monetary policy is being eased as inflation falls. Christopher Waller considers the geopolitical risks that will remain a challenge for central bankers in 2025
December 16, 2024
Populations worldwide are growing older. Rainer Kotschy, David Bloom and Andrew Scott argue for improvements in how ageing is measured and how it affects people and the economy to overcome the challenges...
November 29, 2024
Trump’s victory has re-ignited a debate over the macroeconomic effects of tariffs and the appropriate monetary policy response. Paul Bergin and Giancarlo Corsetti discuss the optimal monetary policy r...
November 22, 2024
Europe’s economy must be future proofed against bottlenecks caused by geopolitical tensions, economic fragmentation and climate and nature hazards, Frank Elderson believes
November 15, 2024
Three years ago the ECB redefined the inflation target. Three crises later Olli Rehn takes stock of how well the revised strategy functioned in a high-inflation environment
November 7, 2024
Donald J Trump is returning to the White House. Stefan Wolff considers what this means for Ukraine, the Middle East, China and the rest of the world
November 6, 2024
Recent tensions between the US and China have raised the spectre of technological decoupling. Yu Cao, Francesca de Nicola, Aaditya Mattoo and Jonathan Timmis explore the impact of US Entity List restrictions...
October 22, 2024
Andrew Bailey discusses global financial stability, emphasising the importance of understanding financial theory and learning the lessons from history, highlighting the need for a macro-prudential app...
October 18, 2024
The economics of space is no longer the province of science fiction. Alessio Terzi and Francesco Nicoli argue that economists should turn their attention to the stars, harnessing opportunities that beckon...
October 14, 2024
Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol analyses what arguments European policymakers have used in discussions about centralising public expenditures at EU level
October 2, 2024
Innovation, investment and integration. Luis de Guindos discusses the revival of productivity growth in the euro area – a critical challenge that demands urgent attention and collective action
September 24, 2024
Concerns over government debt have been on the rise. Martin Larch provides a brief history of government debt in the EU and draws attention to some important issues that are normally kept in the backg...
September 22, 2024
The global economy is facing rifts comparable to the pressures that resulted in ‘economic nationalism, a collapse in global trade and the Great Depression of the 1920s, Christine Lagarde warns
September 4, 2024
Jerome Powell addresses the current economic situation and the path ahead for monetary policy, discussing economic events since the pandemic and exploring why inflation rose to levels not seen in a ge...
September 2, 2024
Amr Saber Algarhi and Konstantinos Lagos describe how the Jackson Hole symposium, a meeting of bankers in a remote Wyoming valley, could have consequences for us all
August 24, 2024
Policymakers’ responses to global events have laid bare the challenges and trade-offs inherent in addressing monetary policy and financial stability shocks. Andrew Bailey discusses what lessons can be...
August 19, 2024
Industrial robots can have a transformative effect on employment and wages. Daisuke Adachi studies how the rise of robot capital has influenced wage polarisation across different occupations in the US
August 14, 2024
Patrick Minford argues that the Labour government’s obsession with absurd fiscal rules and muddles over monetary policy will skewer the new Labour government’s policy for UK growth
July 23, 2024
UK bond yields are currently higher than the G7 average. Sushil Wadhwani argues that the UK government can reduce its debt interest bill by increasing the proportion of index-linked gilts being issued
July 20, 2024
There has been a recent growth deceleration in China. Lucio Vinhas de Souza considers the challenges facing China and argues the final answer will have truly historical results
July 8, 2024
Stringent climate policies are needed to reach temperature targets. Lucas Bretschger argues that theory-based scenarios are a powerful tool to induce efficient decarbonisation policies
July 7, 2024
Carbon pricing initiatives have mushroomed in the last two decades. Daniel Santabárbara and Marta Suárez-Varela evaluate the impact of emissions trading and carbon tax on inflation
June 30, 2024
The EU recently settled on a revision of its fiscal rules. Martin Larch and Matthias Busse argue that a careful assessment of the uncertainty surrounding population projections is necessary
June 26, 2024
Central banks have engaged in large-scale asset purchase programmes, significantly increasing the size of their balance sheets. Stephen Cecchetti and Jens Hilscher consider the implications
June 25, 2024
In their fight against inflation, central banks have raised interest rates. Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji examine the new operating procedures of the Bank of England and the subsidies to the banking se...
May 21, 2024
The effects of economic fracturing are intertwined with broader, longer-term shifts in trade, investment and GVCs. Bruno Casella, Richard Bolwijn and Francesco Casalena highlight ten FDI trends and their...
May 17, 2024
The EU has enacted new rules that overhaul the Stability and Growth Pact. Lucio Pench considers the issues that need to be addressed to ensure the new fiscal rules succeed
May 8, 2024
An unprecedented number of voters will go to the polls globally in 2024. Jeffrey Frankel discusses incumbent’s efforts to buoy the economy and the post-election economic situations
May 3, 2024
There is considerable disagreement about the growth potential of AI. Francesco Filippucci, Peter Gal, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, Alvaro Leandro and Giuseppe Nicoletti argue that the promises and perils of AI-related...
April 30, 2024
The factors which facilitated low average inflation for decades have started to reverse. Hassan Afrouzi, Marina Halac, Kenneth Rogoff and Pierre Yared argue that the growing tensions between central banks...
April 16, 2024
The Western Balkan countries are moving towards European Union accession. Armin Steinbach examines the obstacles and lessons from the Eastern Partnership
March 20, 2024
Christine Lagarde outlines what needs to be done to become sufficiently confident to start dialling back the ECB’s restrictive policy stance
March 19, 2024
Trust is essential for the success of public policies. Agustín Carstens argues that policymakers' success in dealing with recent crises was due to the trust they had built over the years, which allowed...
March 18, 2024
The threats of geoeconomic fragmentation have accelerated in recent years. Alessandro D’Orazio, Fabrizio Ferriani and Andrea Gazzani introduce a novel firm-level revenue-weighted geopolitical risk ind...
February 27, 2024
The global economy has seen a major financial crisis and a worldwide pandemic. Patrick Minford reviews the attempts to model these events and suggests policy conclusions
February 24, 2024
In the process towards European economic and monetary union, two reports played crucial roles. Ivo Maes focuses on the Werner and Delors Reports, capturing the key ideas and debates on the EMU process...
February 19, 2024
Financial markets have inherent instability. Daniel Dăianu considers the role of AI but finds it hard to imagine a complete replacement of human judgment in monetary policy
February 19, 2024
The ECB’s Governing Council has decided to proceed with the ‘preparation phase’. Ulrich Bindseil, Piero Cipollone and Jürgen Schaaf focus on the debate around the impact of a digital euro on bank fund...
February 13, 2024
Andrew Bailey gives an overview on the state of the banking sector, focusing on the future issues that are important for banks themselves and for broader monetary and financial stability
February 12, 2024
A two-tier system of reserve requirements is needed to reduce the size of transfers to banks. Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji answer their critics
February 2, 2024
At 25 the euro area has shown extraordinary resilience. Marco Buti and Giancarlo Corsetti articulate a set of reforms to complete the euro area architecture
January 31, 2024
Daniel Daianu asks if AI can address imbalances between needs and resources sustainably by bringing about abundance for all?
January 31, 2024
To ensure the euro’s role in Europe’s future Fabio Panetta argues that we need effective macroeconomic stability, a fully-fledged banking and capital market union, and a dynamic payments and market in...
January 24, 2024
Central banks have embarked on the largest and most synchronised global monetary policy tightening in a generation. Agustín Carstens reflects on the year ahead and the journey towards price stability
January 24, 2024
Growth in the euro area needs to be revitalised. Reinhard Felke, Mirko Licchetta, Nicolas Philiponnet and Maarten Verwey argue that it is essential to boost investment and foster innovation
January 16, 2024
Unremunerated reserves in the Eurosystem. Robert McCauley and Julien Pinter argue that imposing unremunerated reserves on euro area banks would likely push bank intermediation offshore out of the euro...
January 16, 2024
Unremunerated reserves in the Eurosystem. Robert McCauley and Julien Pinter argue that turning huge remunerated excess bank reserves into zero-yielding required reserves is a tax on banks
January 11, 2024
Luis de Guindos provides an overview of the latest economic developments and discusses the outlook for the euro area economy for the coming months
January 5, 2024
Since 2018 China has pursued a clear, stated objective of self-reliance. Francois de Soyres and Dylan Moore investigate the extent to which China is making progress towards its goals
December 25, 2023
There is a lot of optimism about AI and increased productivity. Daron Acemoğlu and Simon Johnson warn that to support shared prosperity, AI must complement workers, not replace them
December 4, 2023
Industrial policy is at the heart of modern economic policy. Réka Juhász, Nathaniel Lane and Dani Rodrik assess the latest research and consider how to do industrial policy well
November 17, 2023
Monetary policy is too important to rely on trial and error. Klaas Knot argues that central banks need data and research to fulfil their mandate, so that they can do the best possible job
November 15, 2023
The digital transformation will continue. Joachim Nagel discusses productivity, competition and stable money in the digital age
November 14, 2023
Luis de Guindos provides an overview of the euro area economy, and argues that it is vital to reform the EU’s economic governance framework in order to anchor expectations and support fiscal disciplin...
November 4, 2023
Age Bakker and Roel Beetsma provide concrete suggestions for the financial design and enforcement of an EU-wide investment fund
October 19, 2023
Laura Papi argues that seeing off inflation and pivoting to longer-term reforms have important implications for the trajectory of inflation, competitiveness, and growth in the future
September 18, 2023
The EU’s Stability and Growth Pact has been struggling with enforcement since inception. Georg Kirchsteiger and Martin Larch consider the enforcement dilemma of EU fiscal rules
August 30, 2023
The world has experienced an unprecedented series of shocks. Christine Lagarde says clarity, flexibility and humility will be three key elements of robust policymaking against this backdrop
August 23, 2023
Is the tide finally turning for Turkey? Cem Soner argues that avoiding a financial crisis is only the first step forward
July 21, 2023
The Russian economy has performed better than many expected since the war in Ukraine started. Marek Dabrowski argues that the financial burden will be felt for some time
July 20, 2023
A series of shocks have dramatically changed the global landscape. Christine Lagarde argues that the CESEE economies have the resilience to flourish
July 17, 2023
Globalisation is said to be on the retreat. Martina Di Sano, Vanessa Gunnella and Laura Lebastard examine the data to see if we are heading towards deglobalisation
July 12, 2023
Lesetja Kganyago argues that capital flows should be welcomed, and we should control risks and nurture institutions that can deliver productive investment choices
July 3, 2023
Alicia García-Herrero discusses China’s growth potential, identifying the main challenges and the factors that could mitigate China’s structural deceleration
June 13, 2023
Abeliansky et al discuss the two side effects of automation – increased inequality and a rise in carbon emissions – and propose a policy response to deal with both problems
June 9, 2023
Marco Buti, Alessandro Coloccia and Marcello Messori argue that a well-functioning economic union needs a permanent central fiscal capacity
May 26, 2023
Degrowth isn’t the same as a recession – it’s an alternative to growing the economy forever. Katharina Richter discusses the benefits
May 16, 2023
Barry Eichengreen argues that reports of the US dollar’s demise as the dominant global currency have been greatly exaggerated
May 5, 2023
Patrick Minford evaluates the progress being made on the Brexit agenda, focussing on trade, regulation and the EU border
April 12, 2023
Andrew Bailey shares a series of recent lessons for monetary and financial stability, looking at how they all fit together and the challenges they pose
March 29, 2023
Financial turmoil will not stand in the way of further rate rises says Andrew Bailey, who stresses that the banking system is in a sound position and well placed to support the economy despite some global...
March 27, 2023
Christine Lagarde says the dynamic between profits and wages risks continuing to drive up prices, and warns of danger of ‘tit-for-tat’ inflation
March 23, 2023
The world’s international economic institutions have helped reduce conflict and support growth. Tim Sargent, Paul Samson and Hector Torres discuss why we need to fix our international economic organiz...
March 21, 2023
Abebe Aemro Selassie discusses the impact of COVID-19 on African countries, the financing challenge, implications for long-term investment, and how it can best be navigated
March 20, 2023
Mathias Dewatripont, Peter Praet and André Sapir consider the regulation lessons to be learned from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
February 23, 2023
Stefano Micossi discusses the European Commission’s orientations for a revised economic governance in the EU
February 19, 2023
The euro area economy has shown impressive resilience. Nevertheless, Reinhard Felke and Nicolas Philiponnet argue that policymakers should sustain vigilance and action
February 15, 2023
Maarten Verwey and Oliver Dieckmann discuss the Commission’s Winter 2023 Economic Forecast and describe how the EU economy is set to escape recession
February 6, 2023
Willem Buiter, Stephen Cecchetti, Kathryn Dominguez and Antonio Sánchez Serrano summarise central bank policy frameworks used when stabilising financial markets
January 19, 2023
Tymofiy Mylovanov and Gerard Roland argue that Ukraine must strive to become a full-fledged liberal democracy
January 16, 2023
Olli Rehn discusses the ECB handling of interest rates, and believes that a highly restrictive monetary policy shock can be avoided in the future
January 15, 2023
Jerome Powell makes a strong case for limited independence within a democratic framework, warning against a central bank widening its remit and scope too far
January 13, 2023
Where next for inflation, interest rates and economic growth? Steve Schifferes believes that fears of a 1970s-style stagflation could become a reality
January 10, 2023
The European Commission has proposed an important and ambitious overhaul of EU fiscal rules. Marco Buti, Jakob Friis and Roberta Torre respond to the criticism
January 9, 2023
Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji argue that a better policy would avoid transferring central bank profits to commercial banks
January 3, 2023
Guido Lorenzoni, Francesco Giavazzi, Veronica Guerrieri and Leonardo D’Amico argue for a new system of fiscal rules that goes in the direction of a political and fiscal union
December 22, 2022
The UK economy has been buffeted by large disturbances in the last couple of years. Andrew Bailey sets out the key elements of monetary and financial stability policy
December 22, 2022
Lael Brainard considers the lessons learned from the pandemic, supply shocks, inflation, and the challenges for monetary policy
December 21, 2022
Paul Allin, Diane Coyle and Tim Jackson argue that changing how we measure progress is key to tackling a world in crisis
December 21, 2022
Aggregate supply tailwinds are turning into headwinds, raising inflationary pressures and calling for a policy reset, argues Agustín Carstens
December 21, 2022
Daniel Dăianu looks at the role of economics in society and says miracles are not possible, and economics cannot be seen as alchemy
December 21, 2022
The Great Moderation was a period of prosperity. Isabel Schnabel argues that it is up to central banks whether today’s challenges will lead to the Great Volatility
December 21, 2022
Economic policy in Britain is at a crossroads. Patrick Minford argues that a change of leader creates an opportunity to reform policies which are set to create economic disaster
December 20, 2022
The EU has revised growth forecasts down. Maarten Verwey, Laura Bardone and Kristian Orsini say the Russian invasion is exacerbating pre-existing headwinds to economic growth
December 20, 2022
Olivier Blanchard and Jean Pisani-Ferry consider the economic policy implications of the Russia-Ukraine war for the European Union
December 19, 2022
Patrick Minford argues that British economic strategy post-COVID should prioritise growth and overrule conventional Treasury thinking
December 19, 2022
Jon Cunliffe reflects on the key lessons he has learnt about financial stability and highlights longer-term issues such as climate change and crypto
December 19, 2022
Joseph Stiglitz and Kevin Gallagher argue that the IMF surcharges worsen potential outcomes for both the borrowing country and its investors
December 19, 2022
Andrew Bailey looks at the varying forces currently acting on the British economy and what they mean for monetary policy
December 17, 2022
Monetary transformations through history have been driven by changing technology. Michael Bordo argues that technological change is inevitable
December 17, 2022
Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradham consider the risks if inflation stays high, and call on central banks to develop plans to deal with persistent inflation
December 17, 2022
Marek Dabrowski believes a continuation of asset purchasing involves the risk of higher inflation
December 17, 2022
COVID-19 has led to EU governments borrowing at unprecedented levels. Mehmet Burak Turgut discusses the effects of the pandemic as well as relevant policy priorities
December 17, 2022
The pandemic has had severe impacts on Nigeria. Mma Amara Ekeruche and Adedeji Adeniran discuss what can be learnt by other developing economies
December 16, 2022
Cryptoassets and blockchain technology hold great promise. Daniel Dăianu believes that updating the current regulatory framework is a must for governments and central banks
December 16, 2022
Many economists have claimed that Brexit would damage the UK economy. Patrick Minford argues that Brexit benefits to the UK have been widely underestimated
December 12, 2022
Christine Lagarde says the ECB will not let this phase of high inflation feed into economic behaviour and create a lasting inflation problem
December 1, 2022
The payment system is changing in profound ways. Christopher Waller asks if a CBDC would address any of the problems
December 1, 2022
Klaas Lenaerts, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram Wolff explore whether decarbonisation and economic growth are compatible to reach net zero by 2050
November 30, 2022
The Bank of England has issued banknotes for over 300 years. Jon Cunliffe talks about future of money in the UK in an increasingly digital world
November 30, 2022
The European fiscal rules have been temporarily suspended since March 2020 to enable member states to take emergency measures against the COVID crisis. Martin et al argue this should be taken as an opportunity...
November 30, 2022
Philipp Hartmann and Glenn Schepens provide selected takeaways from the ECB’s online Sintra Forum, including whether globalisation is reversing and the role of fiscal policy for the post-COVID recover...
November 29, 2022
Giovanni Tria and Angelo Federico Arcelli ask is a renewed Bretton Woods agreement a concrete option to favour a new economic expansion phase in the post-pandemic world?
November 29, 2022
Andrew Bailey looks at the benefits of a global financial system and talks about the UK’s current and future role in it. He argues that these benefits are global, not regional in nature. So global cooperation...
November 29, 2022
The COVID debt is immense. Patrick Minford considers the options available to the UK government to ensure a successful Brexit
November 28, 2022
Mehmet Burak Turgut is optimistic about CEE growth in 2021 following the successful development of COVID vaccines Will 2021 in CEECs look better than 2020?
November 26, 2022
Developments in digital finance could transform how consumers and businesses make payments and raise finance. This could help revitalise the UK economy, says Andy Haldane.
November 25, 2022
Europe successfully absorbed the shock of COVID-19. Christine Lagarde says the second wave presents new challenges and risks, but the blueprint for managing it is the same
November 24, 2022
Andy Haldane looks at the UK’s recovery from the economic impacts of COVID-19, and says it’s important not to be over-pessimistic because there has been greater robustness and resilience than expected
November 24, 2022
Kristalina Georgieva says the IMF stands ready to help foster a more resilient monetary system – one that is more inclusive, smarter, and greener
November 24, 2022
The COVID crisis has created economic calamity. Kristalina Georgieva argues that now is the time to build a more sustainable and equitable world
November 23, 2022
The understanding of the economy has evolved in ways that are central to monetary policy. Jerome Powell says it is time for pro-growth policies, and softens the Fed’s approach to inflation
November 23, 2022
The last decade has seen a continued accumulation of debt. Charles Goodhart, Tatjana Schulze and Dimitri Tsomocos argue that the fundamental issue of the effects of ‘low for longer’ on the resilience of...
November 23, 2022
Maarten Verwey and Björn Döhring consider the Commission’s Summer 2020 interim forecast, and argue that a rapid response at the EU level is needed to minimise hysteresis
November 23, 2022
Tao Zhang considers the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and says we need to work together to ensure a green and sustainable future
November 22, 2022
Luis de Guindos, Fabio Panetta and Isabel Schnabel outline priority areas for reform to foster European capital markets
November 22, 2022
Clemens Fuest and Jean Pisani-Ferry consider the EU budget, which has to be reassessed in light of the Next Generation EU programme
November 22, 2022
There is a looming global debt crisis. Joseph Stiglitz and Hamid Rashid propose an IMF-managed multilateral sovereign debt buyback would restore stability
November 13, 2022
Global stablecoins signal the need for change, but they can pose serious risks, says Fabio Panetta
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