Global economy

Zettelmeyer70
Draghi on a shoestring: the European Commission’s Competitiveness Compass
The European Commission’s response to the Draghi Report is the Competitiveness Compass. Jeromin Zettelmeyer believes this would set up a conflict between industrial policy and the single market
LvdL70
The European Union has strengths it can build on
Remaining competitive is fundamental for Europe’s future. Christine Lagarde and Ursula von der Leyen argue that Europe needs faster economic growth and higher productivity to protect the quality of life...
GZ70
Not yet Trump-proof: an evaluation of the European Commission’s emerging policy platform
Heather Grabbe and Jeromin Zettelmeyer evaluate the capacity of the EU’s economic strategy to address structural problems and whether policy needs to change under Trump
CJ70
Tariffs are coming: how trade dynamics will shape aggregate demand and inflation
Donald Trump has promised a raft of new tariffs, prompting concerns about a concomitant increase in inflation. Diego Comin and Robert Johnson argue that tariffs do not necessarily raise inflation, which...
vdLeyen70
Pragmatic and principled in an era of harsh geostrategic competition
The EU has signalled its readiness to engage and negotiate with Donald Trump. Ursula von der Leyen warns of a race to the bottom and the need to avoid a trade conflict that would hurt both sides and the...
GP-F70
Political contagion in Europe: can the European Union survive Trumpism?
Trump could bring political contagion that harms the very functioning of the European Union. Heather Grabbe and Jean Pisani-Ferry argue that Trumpism could fatally undermine European integration if governments...
ARP70
Chinese infrastructure lending and Africa’s GVC participation
Chinese lending to African countries has surged. Vito Amendolagine, Andrea Presbitero and Roberta Rabellotti argue that Chinese lending may contribute to export growth and enhanced productivity in African...
G-BMS69
How the EU should respond to Trump’s tariffs
The return of Donald Trump raises fundamental challenges for the EU. Ignacio García-Bercero, Petros Mavroidis and André Sapir focus on possible new tariffs based on statements made by the President-el...
Garcia-Bercero69
A trade policy framework for the EU-UK reset
A reset in the relationship between the UK and the EU is underway. Ignacio García-Bercero recommends the main elements of the reset that would introduce a new dynamic into the EU-UK trade relationship
BC69
Monetary policy in response to tariff shocks
Trump’s victory has re-ignited a debate over the macroeconomic effects of tariffs and the appropriate monetary policy response. Paul Bergin and Giancarlo Corsetti discuss the optimal monetary policy r...
EldersonFrank69
Securing stability in an insecure environment
Europe’s economy must be future proofed against bottlenecks caused by geopolitical tensions, economic fragmentation and climate and nature hazards, Frank Elderson believes
JB69
Financing Europe’s future expenditures
The EU has large investment needs to meet its key priorities. Kalin Anev Janse and Roel Beetsma argue that a first step would be to use existing resources to finance European public goods that benefit...
Caffarra69
Joining competition policy with trade and industrial policy: Let’s get specific – Part 2
Calls for a ‘joined-up approach’ linking competition, trade and industrial policy have finally been heard in Europe. Cristina Caffarra looks at what such an approach might mean in practice
Caffarra69
Joining competition policy with trade and industrial policy: let’s get specific – part 1
Aligning competition policy with trade and industrial policy is essential. Cristina Caffarra sets out some foundational principles for a joined-up approach
Wolff69
The resurrection of Donald Trump
Donald J Trump is returning to the White House. Stefan Wolff considers what this means for Ukraine, the Middle East, China and the rest of the world
CNMT69
Sanctions and technological decoupling
Recent tensions between the US and China have raised the spectre of technological decoupling. Yu Cao, Francesca de Nicola, Aaditya Mattoo and Jonathan Timmis explore the impact of US Entity List restrictions...
TN69
Economists should point their attention to the stars
The economics of space is no longer the province of science fiction. Alessio Terzi and Francesco Nicoli argue that economists should turn their attention to the stars, harnessing opportunities that beckon...
Mourlon-Druol69
An uphill struggle: a long-term perspective on the European public goods debate
Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol analyses what arguments European policymakers have used in discussions about centralising public expenditures at EU level
QXY69
Deconstructing global trade: the role of geopolitical alignment
Globalisation is threatened as countries impose trade restrictions, especially against trading partners with large geopolitical differences. Han Qiu, Dora Xia and James Yetman gauge the impact of this...
Caffarra69
Draghi’s real message on European competition enforcement
The Draghi report on The Future of European Competitiveness is a milestone. Cristina Caffarra argues that not delivering on innovation and growth is the key takeaway, and is not a prescription to relax...
BMT68
International trade effects of industrial policies
Industrial policy is in vogue among policymakers globally. Alessandro Barattieri, Aaditya Mattoo and Daria Taglioni examine the shielding effects that preferential agreements can have when a trade partner...
Kganyago68
South African resilience against new economic challenges
We are entering an era of new economic challenges, even as the recent ones have yet to be overcome. Lesetja Kganyago discusses how South Africa is responding to the global economic challenges
Georgieva68
A low-growth world is an unequal, unstable world
Long periods of slow economic growth can cause a jump in inequality. Kristalina Georgieva argues that a balanced set of policies can stave off that outcome
deSouza68
Trapped! China and the ‘middle-income trap’
There has been a recent growth deceleration in China. Lucio Vinhas de Souza considers the challenges facing China and argues the final answer will have truly historical results
MR68
The return of industrial policies in advanced economies
Industrial policies are increasingly used in advanced economies. Valentine Millot and Łukasz Rawdanowicz discuss the pros and cons of such policies and outline principles to inform policy guidelines
LB68
Europe’s demographic winter and the new EU fiscal rules
The EU recently settled on a revision of its fiscal rules. Martin Larch and Matthias Busse argue that a careful assessment of the uncertainty surrounding population projections is necessary
Georgieva68
A strategy for European competitiveness
Europe’s prosperity, competitiveness, and its market power are derived from the single market. Kristalina Georgieva argues that preserving Europe’s competitive edge will require a well-thought out, multi-pronged...
CipolloneP
Why Europe must safeguard its global currency status
Amid geopolitical shifts Piero Cipollone argues Europe needs to further develop the infrastructure for making crossborder payments in euro with key partners
PY67
AI and robotics as drivers of China’s urban innovation
Andrés Rodríguez-Pose and Zhuoying You show how artificial intelligence and robotics present a potential solution to the innovation gap problem for cities in China
CBC67
Global economic fracturing and shifting investment patterns
The effects of economic fracturing are intertwined with broader, longer-term shifts in trade, investment and GVCs. Bruno Casella, Richard Bolwijn and Francesco Casalena highlight ten FDI trends and their...
Pench67
Three risks that must be addressed for new EU fiscal rules to succeed
The EU has enacted new rules that overhaul the Stability and Growth Pact. Lucio Pench considers the issues that need to be addressed to ensure the new fiscal rules succeed
BDFS67
How geopolitical concerns are changing trade
There has been a rise in trade restrictions since the US-China tariff war and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Costanza Bosone, Ernest Dautović, Michael Fidora and Giovanni Stamato explore the impact of geopolitical...
FMZ67
How to de-risk: European economic security in a world of interdependence
The question is how exactly the EU should ‘de-risk’ its external economic relationships without foregoing the benefits of trade. Jean Pisani-Ferry, Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer disc...
Frankel
Elections and fiscal and monetary expansion
An unprecedented number of voters will go to the polls globally in 2024. Jeffrey Frankel discusses incumbent’s efforts to buoy the economy and the post-election economic situations
LagardeC67
Unlocking the power of ideas to push our economies forward
The history of human progress has been defined by technological breakthroughs generated by ideas. Christine Lagarde argues we need the right conditions that allow them to reach their full potential
FGMPT67
Reforming innovation policy to help the EU escape the middle-technology trap
Europe lags behind in innovation. Clemens Fuest, Daniel Gros, Philipp-Leo Mengel, Giorgio Presidente and Jean Tirole describe how its industry seems stuck in a middle-technology trap and argue that EU...
Steinbach67
The rocky road to European Union accession
The Western Balkan countries are moving towards European Union accession. Armin Steinbach examines the obstacles and lessons from the Eastern Partnership
CL67
Not a ‘side dish’: new industrial policy and competition
Industrial policy is undergoing a major resurgence. Cristina Caffarra and Nathaniel Lane argue that getting Europe to improve performance will require a massive, concerted effort at national and EU le...
Georgieva67
Advancing China’s sustainable economic growth
China is approaching a fork in the road: rely on the policies that have worked in the past or update its policies for a new era of high-quality growth. Kristalina Georgieva discusses
AG67
Understanding the scope, definition, and impact of the WTO e-commerce moratorium
The WTO e-commerce moratorium has been renewed. Andrea Andrenelli and Javier López González explore the different issues around the moratorium debate
DFG67
Geoeconomic fragmentation and firms’ financial performance
The threats of geoeconomic fragmentation have accelerated in recent years. Alessandro D’Orazio, Fabrizio Ferriani and Andrea Gazzani introduce a novel firm-level revenue-weighted geopolitical risk ind...
CK66
Re-joining trade with antitrust measures
Cristina Caffarra and Burcu Kilic describe how antitrust thinking has been undergoing a major shift in the US, and ‘antimonopoly’ has become a broader value in multiple areas of economic policy
CMS66
A framework for geoeconomic power
Countries use their economic strength to achieve geopolitical goals. Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger present a novel framework to understand how a hegemon in the international system...
Schnabel66
From laggard to leader? Closing the euro area’s technology gap
Isabel Schnabel emphasises the euro area’s strengths in social protection and environmental initiatives, and advocates measure to close the euro area’s technology gap
MMP66
Relationship stickiness in international trade
Supply chains are vulnerable to disruptions. Julien Martin, Isabelle Mejean and Mathieu Parenti introduce a new measure of ‘relationship stickiness’ which quantifies these vulnerabilities
Waller66
The United States dollar’s international role
The dollar is by far the dominant currency. Christopher Waller does not expect to see the US dollar lose its status as the world’s reserve currency anytime soon
BowmanSA66
Advancing crossborder payments and financial inclusion
Payments are a vital part of the global and interconnected financial ecosystem. Michelle Bowman considers the evolving payments landscape
KMMX66
The real effects of trade financing by export credit agencies
Trade finance subsidies, usually provided by export credit agencies, are the predominant tool of industrial policy. Poorya Kabir, Adrien Matray, Karsten Müller and Chenzi Xu discuss the effect of the effective...
FKR66
The tide has turned: EU firm-level productivity growth has started to suffer from Chinese import competition
Chinese export dominance is no longer confined to low-wage sectors. Klaus Friesenbichler, Agnes Kügler and Andreas Reinstaller suggest a series of possible policy responses
VdeS66
Unresolved business: enlarging the EU towards Moldova and Ukraine (and perhaps Georgia)
Lucio Vinhas de Souza examines the institutional and financial implications of past and future EU enlargements and argues that the progress made towards Ukrainian accession has direct implications for...
DPR66New
Accelerating strategic investment in the EU beyond 2026
The EU has to manage the climate and digital transitions and achieve greater economic resilience. Maria Demertzis, David Pinkus and Nina Ruer discuss the potential EU approach to funding strategic obj...
Leblond66
After USTR’s move, global governance of digital trade is fraught with unknowns
The US has dropped its support for unhindered international digital trade. Patrick Leblond argues that it now makes an e-commerce agreement at the WTO more likely
Caffarra66
Antitrust and the political economy: Part 2
Cristina Caffarra argues it would be bizarre and unusual for antitrust enforcement to regard itself as an island of stillness, and calls for a more open approach
SM66
Assessing China’s efforts to increase self-reliance
Since 2018 China has pursued a clear, stated objective of self-reliance. Francois de Soyres and Dylan Moore investigate the extent to which China is making progress towards its goals
Caffarra66
Antitrust and the political economy: Part 1
The last five years has seen policymakers struggle to deal with overlapping emergencies. Cristina Caffarra discusses the changing role of antitrust
Frankema66
From the Great Divergence to South-South divergence
The long era of the Great Divergence has come to an end. Ewout Frankema argues that we need to focus on the economic divergence across the Global South
AJ66
The drive toward automation is perilous
There is a lot of optimism about AI and increased productivity. Daron Acemoğlu and Simon Johnson warn that to support shared prosperity, AI must complement workers, not replace them
JLR65
The new economics of industrial policy
Industrial policy is at the heart of modern economic policy. Réka Juhász, Nathaniel Lane and Dani Rodrik assess the latest research and consider how to do industrial policy well
IT65
Globalisation and crossborder data transfers
Banri Ito and Eiichi Tomiura use a survey of Japanese firms in 2019 and 2021 to examine the dynamics of corporate activities related to crossborder data flows
Bailey65
The benefits of openness beats fragmentation
Andrew Bailey describes the benefits of openness and the risks posed by fragmentation for the world economy and financial stability
BBR65
A theory of US trade policy transitions
Renee Bowen, Lawrence Broz and Peter Rosendorff explore the major transitions in US trade policy since the Civil War, and demonstrate that shocks like the Civil War and the Great Depression pave the way...
Harrison65
Economic warfare: lessons from two World Wars
Present-day sanctions have their origins in economic warfare in the two World Wars. Mark Harrison reviews that experience and the lessons we can learn
Buti65
The European Union at the time of the New Cold War: A Manifesto
Ahead of next June’s European Parliament elections Marco Buti et al set out key elements that could form the basis for a new political contract capable of enhancing the global role of the EU
Donovan64
The role of IFCs in the changing world
Geographical barriers continue to tumble. Elise Donovan says IFCs will be crucial to uphold the pillars of international trade, investment, and business
MM65
Talking about competitiveness in Europe: productivity not protection
The European Commission put EU competitiveness at the top of the agenda. Filippo di Mauro and Marco Matani argue that productivity, financial soundness, and quality orientation are the most important...
vdLeyen64
The European Union: answering the call of history
In her State of the Union address, Ursula von der Leyen outlines the main priorities and flagship initiatives for the year to come, building on the EU’s successes and achievements of the past
HMR64
Non-economic objectives, globalisation, and multilateral trade cooperation
Trade and investment policy is increasingly becoming politicised. Bernard Hoekman, Petros Mavroidis and Douglas Nelson present pragmatic suggestions to sustain multilateral trade cooperation
FHS64
Lessons from the Germany shock: consequences of uncoordinated policies
Harald Fadinger, Philipp Herkenhoff and Jan Schymik evaluate the German labour market reforms of the early-2000s and the consequences of uncoordinated economic policies in a currency union
Mar64NEW
Digital trade is good for growth: can it also solve our ESG challenges?
Digital trade is good for growth. Pamela Mar argues that digitalising trade could enable SMEs to a be future ready, environmentally, and socially conscious businesses
Poitiers64
The manufacturing jobs boom that isn’t
Niclas Poitiers argues that the US Inflation Reduction Act shows that massive subsidies are not leading to massive manufacturing job creation
Soner64
Are we witnessing the end of Erdoğanomics?
Is the tide finally turning for Turkey? Cem Soner argues that avoiding a financial crisis is only the first step forward
LOR64
Deep trade agreements and firms’ exports
Matteo Neri-Lainé, Gianluca Orefice and Michele Ruta discuss the effect of deep trade agreements in integrating developing countries’ economies
Dabrowski64
The Russian war economy: macroeconomic performance
The Russian economy has performed better than many expected since the war in Ukraine started. Marek Dabrowski argues that the financial burden will be felt for some time
DGL64
Deglobalisation: is this a risk or reality?
Globalisation is said to be on the retreat. Martina Di Sano, Vanessa Gunnella and Laura Lebastard examine the data to see if we are heading towards deglobalisation
Kganyago64
The contribution of capital flows to sustainable growth in emerging markets
Lesetja Kganyago argues that capital flows should be welcomed, and we should control risks and nurture institutions that can deliver productive investment choices
Cleland64
Global action to enhance crossborder payments
Victoria Cleland discusses the difference to people and economies worldwide that enhancing crossborder payments would make
FHMS64
The trade effects of EU adequacy decisions
Digital trade is increasing rapidly. Martina Ferracane, Bernard Hoekman, Erik van der Marel and Filippo Santi consider how the EUs approach to data protection impacts digital trade
Saint-Amans64
Tax for climate finance should start with shipping
Pascal Saint-Amans argues that emissions from international shipping are the most realistic target for taxes to pay for climate spending in developing countries
G-H64
Can Chinese growth continue to defy gravity?
Alicia García-Herrero discusses China’s growth potential, identifying the main challenges and the factors that could mitigate China’s structural deceleration
FRR64
How deep trade agreements shape non-trade outcomes
Trade agreements increasingly include disciplines aimed at achieving non-trade objectives. Ana Margarida Fernandes, Nadia Rocha and Michele Ruta investigate how non-trade disciplines in PTAs affect non-trade...
IJ64
The impact of artificial intelligence on growth and employment
Ethan Ilzetzki and Suryaansh Jain discuss the results of the May 2023 CfM-CEPR survey, where panellists were asked to predict the impact of AI on the global economy
GO-I63
World trade can still drive prosperity and stability
New protectionist policies threaten the global economy. Kristalina Georgieva and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala argue that thriving international trade goes hand in hand with global prosperity and stability
BCHG63
How will higher carbon prices affect growth and inflation?
Carbon pricing is a central instrument in the EU’s fight against climate change. Claus Brand, Günter Coenen, John Hutchinson and Arthur Saint Guilhem use macroeconomic models examine what higher prices...
AGH63
The EU’s strategic dependencies unveiled
Román Arjona, William Connell Garcia and Cristina Herghelegiu examine the EU’s dependencies in traded goods and find that the EU benefits greatly from its wide participation in international value cha...
BGI63
Trade fragmentation matters for bank credit supply
Claudia Buch, Linda Goldberg and Björn Imbierowicz discuss new evidence from the International Banking Research Network on how trade uncertainty can be amplified through the supply of credit
Ribakova63
Sanctions against Russia will worsen its economic prospects
Sanctions, coming on top of longstanding domestic shortcomings, are gradually weakening Russia. Elina Ribakova argues countries opposing Russia’s war on Ukraine should keep up the pressure
Minford63
Britain’s road to Brexit: evaluating the progress
Patrick Minford evaluates the progress being made on the Brexit agenda, focussing on trade, regulation and the EU border
SHS63
Resilient global supply chains and implications for public policy
Supply disruptions during the pandemic raised concerns about supply chains. Cyrille Schwellnus, Antton Haramboure, and Lea Samek consider the resilience of global supply chains
Kleimann62
Climate versus trade? Reconciling international subsidy rules with industrial decarbonisation
David Kleimann argues that environmental subsidies could be justified when emissions taxation is not feasible or is insufficient due to political economy constraints
Bright61
Containing trade: enabling global commerce
These are disruptive, challenging times. Graham Bright considers the role of the container ship in enabling global trade
Gray61
The BVI – resilient and rebuilding
The BVI is a leading player in the global economy. Simon Gray says this demonstrates the strength and resilience of the financial services sector
Donovan60
At the heart of global markets
Elise Donovan outlines the pivotal role that the BVI plays in supporting the global economy, which lies in the expertise and services that the BVI offers
Bright59
Meeting the challenges of global trade
Graham Bright discusses technologies that can reduce friction in international trade
Bright58
Hope for the best, plan for the worst
Graham Bright considers the global trade landscape post pandemic, and with current tensions says we should hope for the best outcome and plan for the worst
Donovan58
Recalibrating global growth
The British Virgin Islands has steadily increased its role in the global financial system. Elise Donovan discusses how the BVI will aid the post-COVID recovery
Bright57
Adapting to change and consensus
COP26 has shown that consensus is not just confined to politics. Graham Bright considers the finance sector’s role in promoting collaborative trade
Tenreyro57
International trade, global supply chains and monetary policy
Silvana Tenreyro says global supply chains benefits are not evenly spread across sectors
EA56
COVID-19 lessons from Nigeria
The pandemic has had severe impacts on Nigeria. Mma Amara Ekeruche and Adedeji Adeniran discuss what can be learnt by other developing economies
Minford56
Free trade benefits of Brexit
Many economists have claimed that Brexit would damage the UK economy. Patrick Minford argues that Brexit benefits to the UK have been widely underestimated
Bright55
The future of cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies have foreshadowed a potential digital future for money. Graham Bright sees blockchain as an enabler in the growth of the financial system and digital money
Gray55
The BVI fintech transformation
From a traditional financial services centre to a global fintech hub, Simon Gray charts the emergence of the BVI as an innovation and investment hotspot across the fintech and digital space
CEPR55
Pricing of carbon within and at the border of Europe
The EU has announced reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 as the key target of its Green Deal strategy. Christoph Schmidt et al. argue that the EU should consider a border carbon adjustment mechanism only...
TA54
Bretton Woods: time to reset?
Giovanni Tria and Angelo Federico Arcelli ask is a renewed Bretton Woods agreement a concrete option to favour a new economic expansion phase in the post-pandemic world?
Bailey54
The case for an open financial system
Andrew Bailey looks at the benefits of a global financial system and talks about the UK’s current and future role in it. He argues that these benefits are global, not regional in nature. So global cooperation...
Donovan54
Digital assets transforming Africa
The long-term economic outlook for Africa is positive. Elise Donovan examines the enormous potential and the opportunities for wealth creation
Turgut54
Will 2021 in CEECs look better than 2020?
Mehmet Burak Turgut is optimistic about CEE growth in 2021 following the successful development of COVID vaccines Will 2021 in CEECs look better than 2020?
Veron54
The Brexit dust begins to settle
The phase of greatest Brexit-related uncertainty for the European financial sector ended on 1 January. Nicolas Véron believes it is increasingly apparent that London will be less dominant than before
Zhang53
Digital money and financial stability
Crossborder payments are at the heart of the international monetary system. Tao Zhang considers the implications for monetary and financial stability of new forms of digital money
Georgieva53
Four cornerstones of payments in the digital age
Kristalina Georgieva says the IMF stands ready to help foster a more resilient monetary system – one that is more inclusive, smarter, and greener
GeorgievaDec53
A new Bretton Woods moment
The COVID crisis has created economic calamity. Kristalina Georgieva argues that now is the time to build a more sustainable and equitable world
Zhang52
The global and Asia economic outlook
Tao Zhang considers the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and says we need to work together to ensure a green and sustainable future
FP52
Financing the EU: new context, new responses
Clemens Fuest and Jean Pisani-Ferry consider the EU budget, which has to be reassessed in light of the Next Generation EU programme
Bright52
Using technology for trade
COVID-19 has had a drastic effect on global trade. Graham Bright discusses how technology can boost the recovery
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